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Wharton on Making Decisions, by Howard Kunreuther, Robert Gunther, Steve Hoch
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Perspectives from leaders in decision science at Wharton
Organized in part through Wharton's Risk Management and Decision Processes Center, the book assembles leading researchers from Wharton's business faculty who demonstrate how to apply the latest approaches in decision-making from four perspectives: personal, managerial, negotiator, and consumer. Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents the ideal scenario, and then provides practical suggestions for improvement. The subjects range from when consumers will choose variety, integrating intuition into decisions, and applying game theory and strategic decisions, to decision factors in negotiations and how choices are made about insurance and health care.
- Sales Rank: #1218280 in Books
- Published on: 2001-03-16
- Original language: English
- Number of items: 1
- Dimensions: 9.30" h x 1.10" w x 6.30" l, 1.43 pounds
- Binding: Hardcover
- 352 pages
Review
one of the best business books of 2001 (getAbstract, 15 January 2002)
From the Inside Flap
Complex business situations require careful decisions, and every decision entails risk. For managers, who walk along the cliff's edge every day, it is crucial to ask the right questions and analyze situations carefully before making decisions that will have a lasting impact on their organizations and their careers. But what are the right questions? What is the impact of rapid change and increasing complexity? How can managers use new technologies to improve decisions?
In Wharton on Making Decisions, distinguished researchers and thinkers from America's premier business school reveal the latest methods in analyzing alternative options and making choices-drawn from several decades of research into the psychological, interactive, and temporal aspects of decision making. They offer important insights on how to improve the decision-making process in different settings to produce outstanding outcomes.
Wharton on Making Decisions explains the role of personal emotion and everyday reasoning in managerial decision making; discusses ways to combine computer models with personal intuition; and investigates new tools for making decisions in increasingly complex environments. The Wharton experts analyze the impact of strategic learning, personal reputation, and deception in negotiated decisions. They also explore the impact of decision making on society as a whole, examining unexpected responses to medical testing, the impact of values on decisions, the phenomenon of information cascades, and how to deal with low-probability, high-consequence events.
Each chapter describes how decisions are actually made, presents an ideal scenario, and provides practical suggestions on how to make smarter decisions. The objective is to enable business managers to strengthen their decision-making skills and apply the latest methods of analysis and reasoning to decisions facing them.
Supplemented with real-world examples such as the fall of Barings Bank and the space shuttle Challenger disaster, Wharton on Making Decisions is must reading for every manager who wants to make the right decision the first time, every time.
From the Back Cover
"Wharton on Making Decisions provides a unique blend of theory and practical experience. The authors' insights are at many times humorous, always instructive, and definitely thought provoking. This book should be recommended reading for decision makers in today's fast-moving world where alternative choices are increasing in number, complexity, and importance."-Arthur D. Collins Jr., President and COO, Medtronic, Inc.
"This is a superb book that provides valuable insights for managers at all levels. No matter how many critical decisions we make, it is useful to be reminded of the intricacies of the process. Wharton on Making Decisions does just that."-Rakesh Gangwal, President and CEO, U.S. Airways
"Wharton on Making Decisions takes a thorough look at the hard and soft sides of decision making-the intuitive as well as the analytical. With the frenetic pace and complexities of decision making today, this is reading that no manager should miss."-Robert S. Morrison, Chairman, President, and CEO, The Quaker Oats Company
"The depth and breadth of the Wharton collection will help establish the case for the decision sciences to become a new major field of undergraduate and graduate studies at many universities (including my own at Harvard). Thanks, Wharton!" -Howard Raiffa, Frank P. Ramsey Professor of Managerial Economics Emeritus, Harvard Business School
"As managers, we would be pretty disappointed if someone could give us our batting average on the decisions we make. I have no doubt this book can improve your average."-Jean-Pierre Rosso, Chairman, CNH Global N.V.
"Wharton on Making Decisions offers penetrating insight into the art and science of decision making. Relevant to both business and personal life, it's a must read for any decision maker."-Alfred P. West Jr., Chairman and CEO, SEI Investments
Most helpful customer reviews
23 of 23 people found the following review helpful.
Tools and perspectives that can improve decision making
By Gerard Kroese
Both editors are Professor at the Wharton School, University of Pennsylvania, which is one of the highest-ranked business schools in the world. Stephen J. Hoch is Professor of Marketing, while Howard C. Kunreuther is Professor of Decision Sciences and Public Policy and Management. Robert E. Gunther serves as coordinating writer. The book is split up in 4 parts, with each part consisting 3-to-5 standalone chapters.
Chapter 1 - A Complex Web of Decisions serves as an introduction to the book, explaining that we make a wide range of decisions every day. It starts with a very strong point: "Most of us do not make great decisions, and few of us are aware of this fact." However, through the different chapters in this book the editors hope to improve our awareness of the intricacies of the decision-making process. "We examine how people should make decisions according to the models, how they actually behave, and how they can improve their decision making."
The set-up of the book is that we look at decision making from various levels, from an individual/detailed level to a very broad level. In Part I - Personal Decision Making, consisting of 3 chapters, the authors look at individual decision making. These decisions are often influenced by emotions, intuitions, and a focus on present versus future consequences. "How do these factors influence decision making? How can we use these personal assets and foibles to make better decisions?" Understanding these factors should allow us to improve our personal decision making.
The second part, Managerial Decision Making, consisting of 4 chapters, focuses on the managerial decision-making process. "We may be more concerned in this role with using models to set up decision processes in our organization, balancing speed and reflection, dealing with complexity and reframing questions to break out of traditional mind-sets." This part provides us with a variety of tools and perspectives that can help our decision making with an interesting chapter on the differences in Eastern and Western decision making, but also a very strong one on framing of decisions.
Part III - Multiparty Decision Making moves from a single manager to the next level of complexity - interactions among several managers in negotiations across multiple periods. It discusses critical issues at this level. This part, in particular, shines new light on a number of decision making issues. It provides a link with game theory (the field of strategy making), reputation, negotiations, and the impact of modern communications technologies on negotiations.
The final and broadest perspective is discussed in Part IV - Impact of Decision Making on Society. Decisions on this level involve a mix of personal and collective values and reflect quirks in how we prepare for high-impact, low-risk events. And there are some amazing conclusions in this part, whereby we sometimes follow the crowd in the wrong direction and the different approaches between our public and private decisions.
Although this book is named 'Wharton on Making Decisions', there are various chapters by specialists from other academic institutions. Each chapter is an excellent piece of work and can be read on a stand-alone basis. However, as a collection it enables us to improve our understanding of the decision making process on different levels, which should enable us to make better decisions, which, in turn, should result in outstanding outcomes. The insights are based on the latest research in this field (this book was initially published in 2001). Please note that the book is written in somewhat academical language.
0 of 0 people found the following review helpful.
Five Stars
By Raul Carmenate Sr
I'm satisfied.
7 of 8 people found the following review helpful.
If you cannot decide whether or not to buy this book, you probably need it.
By Robert Morris
This is one of the volumes which comprise a series published by John Wiley & Sons. It was edited by Stephen J. Hoch and Howard C. Kunreuther with Robert E. Gunther. In the first chapter which serves as an introduction, Hoch and Kunreuther examine what they characterize as a "complex web of decisions." As they observe, "We need to make the decision making process conscious, to be aware that we are cutting corners and when we need more thorough analysis. Building this awareness of the process - especially given the new complexities of decision making in our modern age - is crucial to successful management....The goal of this book is to build this awareness of the intricacies of the decision-making process." Collectively, the 16 contributors explore decision making on four separate but related levels: as an individual, in our role as a manager, in the context of negotiations and other multiparty interactions, and at the broadest level, in terms of how societal decisions can be managed.
Appropriately, the material is organized within Four Parts:
"Personal Decision Making" (Chapters 2-4): Issues addressed include the challenges of personal decisions, the role the emotions play in managerial decisions - for good or ill, how humans make "surprisingly effective decisions" even when using short cuts, and the same approaches can lead to serious errors...and consequences.
"Managerial Decision Making" (Chapters5-8): Issues addressed include how to combine analytical models with intuition and other approaches during the managerial decision-making process, the significant differences between "the expedient Western approach" and the "reflective Eastern strategy" of decision making, and why managers must be able to "manage their own frames, or they will be blinded by their own successes and the limits of their world views."
"Multiparty Decision Making" (Chapters 9-12): Issues addressed include the nature and extent of interactions between and among managers across multiple periods, what Game Theory suggests about how people learn from experience, how reputations affect the way partners and opponents approach negotiations, how these reputations can best be used and shaped, common deceptions in negotiations and how to recognize them, how decision-support systems and resources can help improve negotiation results.
"Impact of Decision Making on Society" (Chapters 13-17): Subjects covered include various uses of medical tests based on analytical models, the impact of personal (Protected") values on societal decisions, what "protected decisions" are and how they are made, the nature of "information cascades" which involve either "learners" or "lemmings," and how and why inconsistencies in private and public decisions suggest a "split personality."
The 16 contributors are to be commended on their collective examination of how people should make decisions, how they actually do so, and how they can improve their decision making. I especially appreciate the generous provision of real-world examples (e.g. Nick Leeson and Barings Securities), as well as reader-friendly check-lists (e.g. lessons for managers based on the Leeson/Barings scandal), charts and graphs which illustrate core concepts, and use of italics and bold face to expedite periodic review of key points.
My guess (only a guess) is that those in greatest need of what this book offers are least likely to invest the time and effort required to absorb and digest the material, much less act upon it. If you are among them, if you have by now concluded not to read this book, reconsider that decision. Odds are, it's a bad one.
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